Análisis de brotes en tiempo real: el ébola como estudio de caso - parte 1

#simulation #response #ebola #epicurve #reproduction number #Spanish

Introducción Esta práctica (en tres partes) simula la evaluación temprana y la reconstrucción de un brote de enfermedad por el virus del Ébola (EVE). Introduce varios aspectos del análisis de la etapa inicial de un brote, incluida la tasa de letalidad (CFR por sus siglas en inglés de Case Fatality Ratio), curvas epidemiológicas (parte 1), estimación de la tasa de crecimiento, datos del rastreo de contactos, retrasos y estimaciones de transmisibilidad (parte 2), así como la reconstrucción de la cadena de transmisión mediante el uso de outbreaker2 (parte 3). ...

Ebola simulation part 2: outbreak reconstruction

#genetics #simulation #response #outbreaker2 #epicurve #reproduction number #ebola

This practical is the second part of the response to a simulated Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak taking place in the city of Ankh, Republic of Morporkia. While the first part focussed on early assessments of transmissibility, this part explores more methodological options for estimating transmissibility, and provides an introduction to outbreak reconstruction using outbreaker2. An update on the EVD outbreak in Ankh, Republic of Morporkia After some rather concerning preliminary results on the new EVD outbreak in the city of Ankh, Republic of Morporkia, Public Health Morporkia (PHM) has sent you updates of the linelists and contact data. ...

Compartmental model, example for Ebola

#modelling #ebola #compartmental models

This short lecture gives a primer in building compartmental models. It covers various aspects around epidemiological modelling such as flow diagrams, writing ordinary differential equations and reproduction number. The example of the dynamics of Ebola is used. Slides PDF slides (click the image below) PPTX slides (click the image below) About this document Contributors Pierre Nouvellet: initial version Contributions are welcome via pull requests. ...

Ebola: building few models for Ebola

#ebola #compartmental models

This practical aims to illustrate the basics of Ebola modelling using R, with an emphasis on how the method works. We will start with a basic model for Ebola. We will then illustrate how to account for an evolving context, e.g. implementation of control measures. Finally, we will explore basic principle of model fitting. Core Concepts From the previous lecture, we will further develop these concepts: Compartmental models Flow diagrams and writing down a model Natural history of Ebola Control strategies Introduction to model fitting Required packages install. ...